منابع مشابه
Unanimous subjective probabilities
This note shows that if the space of events is sufficiently rich and the subjective probability function of each individual is non-atomic, then there is a σ -algebra of events over which everyone will have the same probability function, and moreover, the range of this common probability is the entire unit interval.
متن کاملSubjective and Other Probabilities
Historically, the term probability has been associated with a number of different concepts. The standard mathematical definition due to Kolmogorov (1933/1950) identifies probability with a countably additive measure on a σ algebra.1 This definition underlies a powerful theory that includes the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. Yet in the applications of this theory, probabilit...
متن کاملNested identification of subjective probabilities
The theory of games against nature relies on complete preferences among all conceivable acts (case 1). Aumann and Drèze (Am Econ J Microecon 1(1):1–16, 2009) consider situations where preferences are defined only for a given set of acts (case 2). We extend these results to situations where (i) only the set of optimal elements from a given set of acts is known (case 3); (ii) only a single optima...
متن کاملSubjective probabilities on "small" domains
The choice-theoretic derivation of subjective probability proposed by Savage (and generalized by Machina and Schmeidler) does not apply in settings like the Ellsberg Paradox, where choice behavior reflects a distinction between risk and ambiguity. This paper formulates two representation results—one for expected utility, the other for probabilistic sophistication— that derive subjective probabi...
متن کاملSubjective probabilities on “small” domains
The Savagian choice-theoretic construction of subjective probability does not apply to preferences, like those in the Ellsberg Paradox, that reflect a distinction between risk and ambiguity.We formulate two representation results—one for expected utility, the other for probabilistic sophistication—that derive subjective probabilities but only on a “small” domain of risky events. Risky events ca...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
سال: 2014
ISSN: 0895-5646,1573-0476
DOI: 10.1007/s11166-014-9194-z